The impact of falling oil prices on the downstream is weakened, and the profitability of sub industries such as modified plastics rebounds
发表时间：2020-7-28 9:55:34 浏览：次
As the price center of chemical products, the weakening of oil price has a negative impact on most chemical sub industries. However, from the downstream end, in the medium term, some downstream sub industries with good or stable demand are expected, such as modified plastics, coatings, additives, etc. The largest downstream consumption of modified plastics is the home appliance industry and automobile industry, and its profitability is more sensitive to cost fluctuations. Since the beginning of the year, the prices of its main raw materials have continued to fall, and the gross profit margin of modified materials has continued to rise.
The impact of falling oil prices on various sub industries of chemical industry is different
As the price center of chemical products, the weakening of oil price has a negative impact on most chemical sub industries, and the price of chemical products is under pressure in the short term. According to the research view of Huatai Securities, in the medium term, some downstream sub industries with good or stable demand expectation, such as modified plastics, coatings, additives, etc.
According to the public data, the statistics as of September 2019 show that, in general, the year-on-year performance of each sub industry of basic chemical industry is different. In terms of operating revenue, the operating revenue of chlor alkali, potash fertilizer, polyester and coating plate has increased by more than 10%, but the compound fertilizer plate has decreased significantly by 24.27%; In terms of net profit attributable to the parent company, the potash fertilizer and silicone sectors increased significantly by 67.05% and 56.54% respectively; Nitrogen fertilizer, plastic products and soda ash all decreased by more than 50%.
Among them, under the background that the oil price has dropped to a low level and the industry is in a downward cycle, the prices of plastics (PP, PS, ABS, etc.) and synthetic rubber are at a historical low. The price decline on the cost side is conducive to the improvement of the profitability of downstream modified plastics, tires and other industries. On the other hand, as rigid demand products, modified plastics and tires have relatively stable growth demand and maintain a high prosperity.
Modified plastics are intermediate products in the petrochemical industry chain. They are mainly processed from five general plastics PE, PP, PS, ABS and five engineering plastics PC, PA, pet or PBT, PPO and POM as plastic matrix. They have the characteristics of flame retardant, impact resistance, high toughness and easy processability. Modified plastics are typical industries benefiting from technological progress and consumption upgrading.
Modified materials are a cost sensitive sub industry
The largest downstream consumption of modified plastics is home appliance industry and automobile industry, and the total consumption of both accounts for more than 50% of the overall consumption capacity of modified plastics. According to statistics, the average usage of modified plastics in color TV sets, air conditioners, refrigerators and washing machines is between 1.5kg-2.5kg.
In fact, the profitability of modified materials is more sensitive to cost fluctuations. Taking Jinfa Technology (600143) as an example, modified plastic products are the company's main source of profit. Since the beginning of the year, the prices of its main raw materials such as polyolefin resin, polystyrene resin and engineering resin have continued to fall, and the company's gross profit margin has continued to rise.
Compared with foreign enterprises, the advantages of domestic manufacturers lie in low cost, fast market response and excellent service; However, the disadvantage lies in the low industry concentration, the small scale of a single enterprise, and there is still a gap with advanced countries in product quality, R & D capacity and management level. Therefore, domestic manufacturers will more from the perspective of demand customization, use their flexibility to make up for the competitive disadvantage with multinational companies in the automotive special materials market, and penetrate and seize the rival market.